Film Analysis: Top Choices of 2021 Yet to Fully Impress

After three years in the league, the 2021 Draft class continues to generate speculation and debate among fans and analysts alike.

With the deadline to sign extensions four weeks away, only four 2021 first-round draft picks have put pen to paper on contracts that will kick in next July. All four — Cade Cunningham, Evan Mobley, Scottie Barnes and Franz Wagner — extended for the maximum amount (estimated at $225 million over five years).

We can expect more extensions next month, as these deals tend to get signed quickly or right before the season starts. Last year, there were five rookie extensions signed in July, two more in early October, and then seven in the three days before opening night.

Whether they’ve signed an extension or not, every key player from the 2021 Draft still has a lot to prove. Here are some numbers and film on the top three picks and what could be coming this season.

1. Cade Cunningham – Looking for more polish on drives

Number to know: Cunningham ranked fourth with 17.0 drives per game last season, according to Second Spectrum tracking.

The only players who averaged more drives per game — Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Brunson and Luka Doncic — finished in the top five in MVP voting. But all three of those guys shot much better, turned the ball over a lot less, and got to the line more often on their drives than the 22-year-old Cunningham.

Overall, Cunningham shot just 49.1% in the paint. That was up from 48.2% over his first two seasons, but ranked just 285th among 306 players with at least 100 attempts. And his assist/turnover ratio on drives (1.27) ranked just 121st among 195 players with at least 200 total drives last season.

The Pistons didn’t space the floor particularly well around him, but he also forced some tough shots …

Cunningham did show some flashes of the kind of footwork that Brunson and Doncic regularly employ after they get into the paint, where they can regain an advantage after their initial drive has been stopped …

More controlled drives like that could help Cunningham cut down on the turnovers and get to the free throw line a bit more.

After a second straight season with the league’s worst record, the Pistons made another coaching change. They added some vets and have a handful of young players that need to get better. But Cunningham remains the most important player on the roster, and Detroit needs him to get more out of all those drives to the basket.

2. Jalen Green – More playmaking is needed

Number to know: Green averaged just 1.42 potential assists per minute of possession, the third lowest rate among 78 players who totaled at least 200 minutes of possession last season.

The only players who averaged fewer potential assists per minute of possession were Brunson (1.40) and Keyonte George (1.38). Brunson was a much more efficient scorer than Green, while George was a rookie.

As a team, the Rockets ranked 29th in ball movement, averaging just 304 passes per 24 minutes of possession. The Clippers moved the ball less, but had stars who could score in isolation and ranked fourth offensively. The Rockets didn’t have that kind of talent and ranked 20th.

A large portion of Green’s shot diet is step-back 3-pointers with plenty of time left on the shot clock. He can lack the patience to look for a better shot, and he doesn’t make defenses pay for putting a second defender in his space.

Here’s a fadeaway long 2-pointer with 11 seconds on the clock and Jaden McDaniels playing way off of Fred VanVleet, who’s just one pass away …

Green can obviously use his quickness to bend defenses and create good shots for his teammates, and he doesn’t need to be Steve Nash or Nikola Jokic in regard to his floor vision. By just consistently recognizing when extra defenders are shading his way, he can be a better playmaker and give the Rockets’ offense a lift as they try to end a four-year playoff drought.

Green is the only player from the top four of the 2021 Draft that didn’t sign an extension in July, though teammate Alperen Sengun (the No. 16 pick in 2021) is also without an extension as we head toward October.

3. Evan Mobley – Spacing the floor and shooting from deep

Number to know: The Cavs scored 7.0 more points per 100 possessions with Jarrett Allen on the floor without Mobley (117.3) than they did with both of the starting bigs on the floor together (110.2).

Cavs’ efficiency with Mobley and/or Allen on the floor

OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
DefRtg = Points allowed per 100 possessions
NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions
Includes regular season and playoffs

Mobley and Allen assisted each other 2.4 times per 36 minutes on the floor together, up from just 1.4 per 36 the season prior. But the Cleveland offense was worse than league average when they shared the floor.

One issue, of course, is spacing. Mobley has actually seen a drop in his 3-point rate each season he’s been in the league, from 11.1% of his field goal attempts as a rookie to 10.8% in 2022-23 and 10.7% last season.

He didn’t shoot poorly from deep last season (22-for-59, 37.3%). He just didn’t shoot enough, too often turning down open 3s to take tougher shots inside the arc …

Even when he does shoot off the catch, Mobley’s release is slow. But if you put him at the five and surround him with shooters, Mobley can be a quick and active offensive hub …

Is that his future, or can the Cavs make it work with two bigs? A coaching change — J.B. Bickerstaff out, Kenny Atkinson in — offers them an opportunity to give it one more try. They have similar issues with their backcourt combination of Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell, where the whole has been less than the sum of the parts.

If they somehow can flip that around, both in the backcourt and up front, it will be a big year in Cleveland.

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John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on X.

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