Fantasy impact of NFL free agency and offseason trades

The NBA offseason has transformed into its own spectacle, with players frequently changing teams. While this constant movement keeps us basketball fans on our toes, it also requires us to stay engaged year-round. To simplify the process, we have crafted this article to analyze the impact of player transfers on fantasy basketball. We will assess how the relocation of key fantasy-relevant players has affected their own value and that of their new teammates.

Trades 

Klay Thompson, Dallas Mavericks

Thompson wasn’t the best player to change teams, but his move was arguably the most talked-about transaction of the offseason. He finally moved on after 11 years in Golden State, completing a sign-and-trade with Dallas. The move was no surprise when looking at his numbers, with Thompson averaging 17.9 points, 3.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 0.6 steals and 3.5 threes last season. Those were his worst totals since his rookie season, and fans are hopeful he’ll be able to recapture his pre-injury form for the Mavs. He should be back to starting and playing 30-35 minutes a night, but we don’t expect much improvement with how ball-dominant Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are.  

Buddy Hield/De’Anthony Melton, Golden State Warriors

These guys were acquired to fill the void Thompson left behind, and it was a fascinating move for the Warriors. Hield brings all the 3-point shooting that Thompson had, while Melton will be a great defender and ball-handler behind Stephen Curry. It’s unclear how much these guys will play because this is one of the most chaotic rotations in the NBA. A bounce-back season is possible for both, but 10 players need minutes for this revamped rotation. 

Editor’s Note: Melton was technically a free agent signing, while Hield was acquired via sign-and-trade. 

DeMar DeRozan, Sacramento Kings

DeRozan wanted to get out of Chicago and finally got his wish. The All-Star was essentially traded for Harrison Barnes and will fill the small forward role for the Kings. He joins a team with two playmakers, though, with De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis doing everything in Sacramento. That has to hurt DeRozan’s value a bit, but he’s been one of the most consistent players for a decade, averaging 23.4 points, 4.7 rebounds, 5.0 assists and 1.1 steals since 2013.  

Dejounte Murray, New Orleans Pelicans

Murray has been rumored to leave Atlanta for years, and it finally happened. He was acquired by the Pelicans and will now start next to CJ McCollum in the backcourt. Murray has been able to stuff the stat sheet wherever he’s been, but it may become difficult since Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram are the stars of this team. Regardless, Murray should at least duplicate what we saw last season, averaging 22.5 points, 5.3 rebounds, 6.4 assists and 1.3 steals per game while sharing a leading role with Trae Young. 

Alex Caruso, Oklahoma City Thunder

This is one of those moves that’s a better real-life basketball addition rather than a boost for fantasy. Caruso was swapped for Josh Giddey and will now join Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in OKC’s backcourt. Fans love what Caruso brings to the table, but there are some scary variables when looking at his fantasy profile. The first is that he’s playing with a stacked rotation, with Caruso likely to provide little on the offensive end. He’s also had difficulty staying healthy, playing just 366 games across his seven-year career. He’s a tremendous late-round pick for defensive statistics, but don’t expect much on the offensive end.  

Josh Giddey, Chicago Bulls

Giddey was the one traded for Caruso, and he should have a bounce-back season for a rebuilding Chicago team. Losing Caruso and DeMar DeRozan will allow Giddey to run the show in Chicago, and he’s been a stat-stuffer in that role in the past. While he was benched during last season’s playoffs, the Aussie averaged 13.8 points, 7.4 rebounds, 5.8 assists and 0.8 steals through his first three seasons with OKC. Those averages could be his floor as one of the primary playmakers for this team, especially since this kid is only 21 years old.  

Mikal Bridges, New York Knicks

Bridges being traded to NY was one of the biggest trades in the offseason because he makes them a true contender. That’s not the same feeling fantasy owners will have, though, with Bridges’ value plummeting after that move. This guy was a second-round pick in fantasy drafts just two years ago but might not even go in the Top 50 with how stacked the Knicks’ roster is right now. He should be a solid contributor who never misses games, but his ceiling is limited with how deep this rotation has become.  

Bojan Bogdanovic, Brooklyn Nets 

Brooklyn stockpiled picks while unloading Bridges and also acquired the veteran Bogdanovic. The sharpshooter is coming off his worst year since 2017, but being in Brooklyn might be the best way for him to get back on track. The Nets are projected to have the worst record and offense in the NBA, with Bogdanovic looking like one of the best bets to lead the team in scoring and shot attempts outside of Cam Thomas. That’s an ideal situation for Bogdanovic, who has averaged 18.4 points, 3.8 rebounds and 2.5 threes over the last six seasons.  

Malcolm Brogdon, Washington Wizards

I’m bullish on Brogdon having a bounce-back season. The veteran guard was sent to Washington for Deni Avdija, and he’s expected to take over as the starting point guard for one of the worst rosters in the NBA. That’s an ideal landing spot for a guy who’s had trouble staying on the floor, playing 67 games or fewer in seven straight seasons. It’s sad because Brogdon has been a fantasy asset throughout his career, averaging 17.2 points, 4.6 rebounds, 5.2 assists, 0.7 steals and 1.9 threes on elite shooting over the last six seasons. If he can return to that, Brogdon will be a steal at the end of fantasy drafts. 

Deni Avdija, Portland Trail Blazers

Avdija was the one traded for Brogdon, and it was surprising to see Washington part ways with their former top-10 pick after a breakout season. The versatile forward posted career highs across the board, averaging 14.7 points, 7.2 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 0.8 steals and 1.2 threes per game. That’s a solid all-around stat line, and he should be able to duplicate it for one of the worst teams in the NBA. With that said, he will have to battle Jerami Grant and Shaedon Sharpe for wing minutes, which is problematic since Deandre Ayton, Scoot Henderson and Anfernee Simons are expected to be the primary playmakers. A slight drop-off is likely with all those variables in play.  

Free Agent Signings 

Paul George, Philadelphia 76ers

PG13 was the biggest offseason signing out there, inking a four-year, $212 million deal with the Sixers. That’s quite the contract for a declining 34-year-old who’s had a rash of injuries, but he’s still one of the best players in the NBA. Despite struggling last season, George averaged 22.6 points, 5.2 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.5 steals and 3.3 threes per game. That’s still a top-40 player in fantasy, but he might see a decrease in usage with Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey doing so much for the Sixers. In any case, George is a safe option in the first four rounds of drafts.

Isaiah Hartenstein, Oklahoma City Thunder

Hartenstein broke out in New York last season, which earned him a massive contract in Oklahoma City. The big man averaged 8.7 points, 9.2 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.1 steals and 1.2 blocks over the final 64 games of last season. He did that with Julius Randle and Mitchell Robinson injured, playing nearly 30 minutes a night. It’ll be nearly impossible for him to reach that in OKC because Chet Holmgren is a blossoming star. We still expect Hartenstein to play 25 minutes and provide the stat-stuffing we saw last season, but he’ll have trouble duplicating his breakout campaign.  

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Orlando Magic

KCP was a key piece for Denver over the last few years but signed a three-year, $66 million deal in Orlando. It’s far from a sexy move, but KCP will fill a valuable role as a three-and-D player for the Magic. KCP has never been a fantasy stud, but he’s always been a must-roster player because he’s locked into 30-35 minutes a night. He carries almost no upside, but Caldwell-Pope is a safe lineup-filler at the end of drafts.  

Tobias Harris, Detroit Pistons

Harris had a rough time in Philly, but all the skepticism was unearned. Most fans were frustrated because of his lofty contract, but he still averaged 17.6 points, 6.5 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.6 blocks and 1.5 threes in his five seasons with the Sixers. That’s a solid all-around stat line, paired with some elite shooting numbers. That’s why Harris is a candidate to have a major bounce back in Detroit, playing for one of the worst rosters in the NBA.  

Jonas Valanciunas, Washington Wizards

Valanciunas has steadily been losing minutes over the last few seasons, but a move to Washington could be just what the doctor ordered. Despite playing 24 minutes over the last two seasons, the big man averaged 13.1 points, 9.5 rebounds and 0.8 blocks per game. That shows just how good of a per-minute producer JV can be, and we have to assume he’ll creep closer to 30 minutes with how weak this Washington frontcourt looks.  

Tyus Jones, Phoenix Suns

Jones was one of the final signings during the summer, inking a one-year, $3.3 million deal with Phoenix. It was easily one of the best bargain buys of the offseason, and it’s hard to understand why he was so cheap. It couldn’t be a better situation because the Suns have desperately sought a true point guard since Chris Paul. That’s just what Jones is, averaging 12.0 points, 2.7 rebounds, 7.3 assists, 1.1 steals and 1.6 threes per game last season. He might be a backup behind Bradley Beal and Devin Booker, but Jones could be a draft-day steal if he plays 25-30 minutes as the starting PG for this offensive juggernaut. 

Biggest Fantasy Winners

Josh Giddey, Malcolm Brogdon, Tobias Harris and Jonas Valanciunas

Biggest Fantasy Losers

Mikal Bridges, Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein